Thoughts of a patriot: The case for Exchange Traded Commodities: building...

Thoughts of a patriot: The case for Exchange Traded Commodities: building...: An economy is as good as the opportunities it fully utilises. Zimbabwe's recent gains in GDP growth and industrial recovery have a lot t...

The case for Exchange Traded Commodities: building a stronger ecosystem for Zimbabwe's currency

An economy is as good as the opportunities it fully utilises. Zimbabwe's recent gains in GDP growth and industrial recovery have a lot to owe to the mining sector and the players taking opportunities to explore, mine, sell, or refine and sell. The government, to an extent, has also taken its opportunities on minerals' value chains including on ensuring it receives royalties from an expanded tax base in the sector. However, the US$12Billion industry plans and trajectory still have more gears to engage. Zimbabwe should not continue to further miss or delay tapping into an over US$10Billion a year market where the benefits would significantly support our local currency and further growth against the US$12Billion target for the mining sector. The volatility levels in our financial markets and currency, the desperate and adverse propensity to seek a store of value in scarce foreign currency against low exports, and the investor confidence levels can all find a much needed panacea if stakeholders moved with speed to ensure Zimbabwe's financial environment and investment field had the establishment of Exchange Traded Commodities on the market, especially those focused on minerals. 

Defining the Exchange Traded Commodities (ETCs); these by definition are financial instruments that track the price of a specific commodity or a basket of commodities like gold, silver, or oil. ETCs provide direct exposure to commodity prices, and in most forms are backed by the physical commodity itself or Futures contracts. Unlike ETFs, which I am pleased have increased from one to about four on the ZSE, ETCs will not hold company equity or their issued bonds on the market. They would be focused on the commodity itself.

Importantly, physical commodities backing the ETC will be held as ETCs are commonly backed by physical holdings of the commodity, or by derivative contracts (like Futures).  For physically backed ETCs, the commodity (e.g. nickel, uranium, lithium, diamonds, gold, rare earths etc.) is stored in secure vaults managed by trusted custodians. Each ETC share represents a specific quantity of the commodity in secure vaults, ensuring transparency and investor confidence. 

Minds will already have wandered towards how custodians of fiat currencies have previously lost people's trust, and how corruption lessens belief in a product's transparency and hence low investor confidence. This is why I would suggest Zimbabwe starts at physically backed ETCs and not the alternative synthetic ETCs which deploy swaps or Futures contracts replicating commodity price movements without possession of the physical asset. The integrity of an ETC depends on strict auditing and regulatory oversight to confirm the existence and proper management of the underlying assets - that is why this proposition and encouragement of ETCs as market products missing in Zimbabwe herein promulgates a start at physical holdings so that consumer focus and basis for choice centres on market force interactions with ETCs rather than a fear of electronic ledger manipulation for a product not even within or recoverable in Zimbabwe. Focusing on market forces makes buy-in easier.

Market forces such as supply and demand, geopolitical developments (like current Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Gaza situations), interest rates, and inflation directly influence ETC pricing. As an example, increased global demand for gold drove up its price increasing the value of gold-backed ETCs. As a clear opportunity lost by Zimbabwe, if we had an ETC on Gold, individuals who wanted to invest a portion of their capital in June 2024 will have seen its value rise circa. 22% up to this moment in mid-March 2025. For a farmer in between Zimbabwe's main cropping seasons (May - October 2024), their capital will have appreciated upwards of 9%. That is how an ETC could have helped the economy and individuals. That is also how a market force could impact the ETC. Similarly, changes in commodity production levels, trade restrictions, or shifts in investor sentiment can affect ETC values. Currency fluctuations, especially in import-heavy countries like how Zimbabwe has been for a while, can also impact ETC prices. As ETCs reflect real-time market dynamics, they offer an accessible way for investors to gain exposure to commodity trends (which show prices depreciating and appreciating). The question then becomes why market forces impinging on ETC prices is a welcome value proposition for Zimbabwe. But first, it would be the most gross of negligence to ignore the gaps in our participation compared to other markets and money that could have been made in current market conditions.

1. Only 3% of African retail investors currently access gold investment, compared to 12-15% in developed markets. Potential to mobilise $8-12 billion in domestic African capital currently outside formal financial systems. US$400m is a figure that Zimbabwe could include in its gold market  gunpowder keg via ETCs, but is instead leaving out of the gold market to move inefficiently. Structured properly, some research says a gold ETC could retain 30-40% more mineral royalties within the country. ZWL agenda would have thundering footsteps towards full establishment and full de-dollarisation.
2. Silver's industrial linkage means Silver ETCs could bridge investment and industrial demand, potentially increasing industrial utilisation by 25-30% in manufacturing sectors. Current silver ETC market depth is approximately 60% lower in African markets than global equivalents. As this market is prone to fixing, price differentials between African and global silver markets show inefficiencies of 5-7% that ETCs could address.
3. Whilst the MMCZ does its best, it can be strengthened as an organisation that is both internally and externally supportive of the Diamond industry. Diamond ETCs could reduce valuation opacity by approximately 40-50% based on some estimates. Further benefits from structured ETCs with a diamonds focus is an increase in domestic cutting and polishing activities by 20-25%. The ETCs would go some way at addressing why African diamond producers currently receive 15-22% below true market value due to intermediation costs. Issues the general public do not participate in and hence do not fathom.
4. Mixed basket ETCs provide 30-35% better risk-adjusted returns than single-commodity instruments. By way of development alignment, mixed basket ETCs could direct 25-40% more capital toward strategic minerals needed for energy transition and technology development.
5. Mixed baskets correlated with export earnings could reduce currency volatility by 10-15% in an export dependent economy such as our own.

This describes and quantifies a situation whence we can independently extrapolate Zimbabwe's trajectory forward, potentially as one of the first movers taking advantage in Pan-African investor focused ETCs. The monetary estimated ranges the Zimbabwean market could benefit from per year depending on market efficiency and other environmental issues are:

Gold ETC: US$160 - 440m

Silver ETC: US$1-3m. Small value but makes a difference through spillover benefits in industry.

Diamonds ETC: US$75-160m  

Mixed basket ETC: US$80-220m. This could be actively managed to include minerals like platinum, lithium and rare earths.

In total, Zimbabwe can expand market participation and also get the firepower for economic ancillary benefits to the tune of around and over US$1Billion a year, just from ETCs linked to metals and strategic minerals. That is too much of an amount of money to be left for others to pick from the table whilst we have a currency needing a very supportive ecosystem.

We must accept we have had local currency instability despite improvements here and there. In an economy like ours, with its monetary environment challenges, investor doubts, and challenging behavioural economics, ETCs present a market-driven, transparent investment option. Their prices are influenced by global commodity markets (which the internal and external investors seem to trust more), shield investors from any local currency devaluation (which commands very high levels of fear and anticipation in investors). This linkage provides investors with a hedge against inflation and currency risk. As ETCs reflect real market demand and supply, they encourage fair pricing and can attract foreign investors seeking authentic value propositions. In essence, ETCs can provide Zimbabweans with another option for a store of value compared to the ZWL gold-linked local currency. 

The difference and how the ETCs become an option different especially to the ZiG coins too is an important issue to address.

Blessed are the flexible, for they shall not be bent out of shape. - Anonymous. 

An ETC's market flexibility is more defined if it includes various commodities, imagine here silver, lithium, platinum and nickel in one ETC. Having such various commodities and being tradable in a way approved or accessed by global markets allows for dynamic pricing. ZiG coins on the other hand are focused solely on gold and their design limits them to mostly internal circulation and approval.

ETCs can be divided into smaller, more affordable units, making them accessible to a wider range of investors. The unit's correlation to the commodity will be up to the ETC manager's profiling of the market and the liquidity they want to maintain against anticipated trading volumes. This flexibility can help expand Zimbabwe’s investor base. ZiG coins still suffer divisibility and access limitations; high-value and being physical means they remain less divisible and with little to no participation from smaller investors even on short term basis. Participation is key internally, and strong economies facilitate average citizens' participation in the opportunities found in other economies.

ETCs are integrated into global Futures markets, enabling better price hedging and for those able to manage external market risks, to participate in high speed short trades. ZiG coins and the infrastructure around them function more as a local hedge against local currency devaluation only. Speaking of opportunities lost, ETCs would allow realisation of external or international market opportunities for more people of Zimbabwe and as likely to be the case, for more companies in Zimbabwe. Allowing investors to purchase fractional units translates to accessibility for a broader demographic, including low to middle-income Zimbabweans - Vision 2030. The low entry barrier encourages wider participation in commodity investments, fostering financial inclusion in an industry where many in Zimbabwe would have to abandon current locations if they wanted to participate on Zimbabwe's precious metals value chain. Additionally, as ETCs can be traded on exchanges, they offer liquidity and easy exit options. This expansion of the investor base can strengthen our country's financial markets, promote wealth accumulation, and encourage a more visible Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS), something currently very difficult to measure and use due to large volumes of unbanked cash and the informality levels of economic participants.

On a larger scale, the positive impact to organisations on the value chain is also very clear. If external demand for commodities increases (such that buyers find themselves needing to access Zimbabwean ETCs' commodity holdings), foreign buyers can engage with ETC managers to acquire ETCs - bringing the supply-v-demand dynamic right to the Zimbabwean ETCs themselves. This interaction provides a pathway for investors to convert their holdings into forex, promoting liquidity. For Zimbabwe and its currency dynamics, this is a valuable mechanism to attract foreign currency, needless to repeat that this supports much needed economic and currency stability. ETC managers can facilitate these conversions, ensuring compliance with financial regulations while promoting global trade partnerships. Of course there are challenges, opportunities, and requisite positive adjustments in the functions of entities like the Mineral Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe (MMCZ). Compatibility and alignment of all stakeholders and the relevant laws is crucial midwifery to the mining sector and all other sectors receiving a live birth of ETCs' inherent opportunities.

ETC managers would need to ensure their market analysis and strategy is towards ensuring stimulation of the mining sector by creating additional domestic consumption beyond traditional exports. They will be holding very calculated volumes of commodity inventories that they at times export with cash satisfying some withdrawals and revaluation of ETC units. Steady demand encourages mining operations to expand, leading to economies of scale and reduced production costs. As demand grows, more mining activities may shift from informal to formal sectors, enhancing sector planning and greater integration, regulatory compliance and sustainability. 

As an economy, our growth and diversification equates to such positive externalities' broader economic benefits; increased activity that further drives growth of supporting industries such as logistics, hospitality, mineral refining, and equipment manufacturing or repair. 

A robust ETC market is potentially one unique gateway to Zimbabwe’s exponential curve's sharp upward-tilt in mining industry and related sectors' growth. Capital inflows is a characteristic that should be expected from ETCs. Employment growth would definitely follow from expansion in mining and its value chains. Whilst we are busy looking for FDI, there is unallocated or misallocated capital held by Zimbabweans. Would-be Upper-middle income Zimbabweans can start sowing seeds for overshooting or at least ascertaining achievement of the aimed-for upward shift in economic class. Increased demand incentivises technological adoption, improved mining practices, and cheaper cost of capital for projects on required energy production for the sector, further strengthening the sector’s global competitiveness. 

What is there to be scared of? Yesteryears' Old Mutual Implied Rate (OMIR) issues? These can be avoided and surely should no longer be an issue if the ZWL circulation and its value approach are managed well.

The benefits of ETCs can be positively and clearly distinguished from the historical impact of Old Mutual shares (OMs) on currency stability in Zimbabwe. By focusing on the intrinsic nature of ETCs, their market dynamics, and how they align with stabilising the economy, that matter is totally unrelated to the need to cure ETC deficiency in Zimbabwe.     

OMs were equity instruments representing ownership in a company with their valuation at the mercy of market speculation, cross-listing price differences, and arbitrage; making them vulnerable to external distortions that impact local currency stability. ETCs on the other hand are directly backed by tangible commodities like gold, silver, nickel, uranium, or a basket of minerals. The value of an ETC is inherently linked to the global price of these commodities, providing a solid, objective measure of worth that is less susceptible to local currency fluctuations. The only worry is if Zimbabweans allow themselves to be fleeced of their ZiG/ZWL by wrong exorbitant pricing against the local currency as evident in most basic goods. 

ETCs would possess a commodity-driven value as they are pegged to global commodity prices. ETCs offer an intrinsic hedge against local currency devaluation as opposed to seeking this hedge in the US dollar, a practice that concomitantly puts further pressure on the local currency and its long term sustainability as importers then compete with savers, and remittances for US$s against disproportional export values. For instance, gold-backed ETCs would retain or appreciate in value when the Zimbabwean dollar weakens without the added misfortune of putting adverse pressure on the ZWL.  

ETCs limit speculative arbitrage opportunities that can destabilise local markets. Unlike the old cross-listed OMs, ETCs are typically structured to reflect global commodity prices uniformly. A reduction in speculative attacks on the ZWL can follow as ETCs could strengthen it by dint of anchoring its value indirectly to globally recognised commodity prices (this time the commodities being those mined from our own highly endowed Zimbabwean soils). The ZWL is doing that itself with gold prices to an extent and the ZiG coins to a larger extent. The international gold price correlation to platinum or nickel itself will have the market quickly stabilising around a relevant ETC's correlation to the appropriate market driven ZWL or ZiG coin price. This is the reason why some of us were asking for a gold backed currency for years; speculative attacks on our currency and economic environment must be stopped. As ETCs are generally backed by verified physical commodities stored in secure vaults, with strict issuance and redemption processes, this structure minimises the chances of speculative manipulation. All players would need to set strict rules for each other for market order and ETC market sincerity. 

The MMCZ's mandate which includes 'developing new markets for Zimbabwean minerals, marketing minerals directly in regional and international markets, evaluating rough and polished diamonds, and ensuring accountability of national mineral resources through monitoring and inspection strategies' should be supportive of building the case for ETCs as a positive market force. Where their exclusive authority over mineral marketing can present challenges to the establishment of ETCs in Zimbabwe, the light should be seen on what powers are essential to let go of for the good of the country.  Of importance is thoroughly reviewing if their centralised power hinders necessary market dynamics and liquidity essential for ETCs to function effectively. Before that, the existing legal framework needs to be optimised, and hopefully, on resultant balance, accommodate the operational structures required for establishment of ETCs in Zimbabwe. 

In fact, regulating ETCs is not as hard as chasing smugglers or closing loopholes for the smuggling of the precious commodities! It is not as hard as investigating corrupt individuals interfering with optimal marketing of minerals. ETCs involve straightforward regulatory oversight! The focus is on verifying commodity holdings and ensuring fair pricing mechanisms. Lessen the load on the Border officers, ZRP and ZACC and at the same time grow the economy. MMCZ, Securities Exchange Commission of Zimbabwe, FIU and other key players should be able to handle this profitable job.

As Zimbabwe, I believe we should be running breathless towards the opportunities being washed away by time whilst we watch. ETCs presently have a wasted present moment in Zimbabwe and Africa. We need to make the ETCs future an urgent objective. Let us have not one ETC, but let us have some!

Exchange Traded Funds, Forex and Inflation in our smaller economic market

There is a time when having only one of something is the worst situation, having zero of it being better, and having multiples of it best. This is the case with Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in certain market sizes. The foreign exchange rate and ETFs have a relationship! This relationship is not consistent, but has its moments around major events in economic cycles. Over periods of time, correlations can be identified between domestic currency and an ETF that follows the greatest of weight amongst all the counters in the country. It is the same with indices.

There are important measures that one needs to look at when measuring the risk that any security or group of securities pose to the financial system or to the markets.

There has always been the following questions on Zimbabwe:

1. What drives markets? In other words, what influences the markets?
2. Where there is a black market rate for foreign exchange rate, where does it look to for some form of price discovery?
3. Does a reputation and urgency,  added to power mean a stakeholder could drive market sentiment and direction even for a brief moment against what would be otherwise opposing market fundamentals?

Applied to the Zimbabwean situation and contrasted against the chosen exemplar markets, the information below provides insights on market risks from securities and the suitability and validity - let us say the transferability and generalisability - of theories and practices we adopt from totally different markets.

 

1. The S&P 500, market capitalisation (US$31.6T), 68% of market capitalisation (US$47T) in the USA, is slightly higher than the proportion the ZSE top-10 counters make up of the market value of all Zimbabwean traded securities (53.5%).
2. The one ETF on the ZSE top 10 has a Market Cap of 0.04% of the ZSE.
3. There are 4 main ETFs in the US for the 68% of US Market capitalisation and these are stated to have different investment strategies in the top market cap tier counters and different levels of liquidity.
4. There is only 1 ETF for the 53% of ZSE equities.
5. The S&P 500 is widely regarded as a true measure of the US economy
6. The ETFs for the US choose between 500 companies and for the ZSE chooses between 10 or ALL 10.
7. The S&P is full of global companies whose demand and supply chains reach across the globe and which alone can run a conference to compete with Davos. They are big exporters that compete with whole country economies on the S&P 500.
8. The Top 10 ZSE stocks have limited regional or even continental reach in terms of market share, industry leadership, and any Corporate Political Activity outside Zimbabwe. 

From the above, the S&P 500 is greatly diversified. Whilst the value trends for the different ETFs closely mirror each other, their disaggregation and independence mean the different entities provide some form of price consensus. Derived valuations of the market or strength of any other security does not become too dependent on market error in tracking the the S&P500. 

All the above is not mitigated by having a single ETF on the ZSE focusing on the Top 10 counters. The situation instead becomes the foundation of derivative problems. As with major counters' ETFs, they become the reflection of the market and the economy and start to become a reference point. Where there is not much trust in reference points, they become a favourite or preferred reference point for certain market players. It is unfortunate that when market players have previously referred to certain known institutions, gone through some vacuum as they found no other they want to believe, the return of the same institution or its players can be found substantive enough to be the vacuum filler. It is the worst case scenario of having one of something. 

With what ETFs can become in symbolism, Zimbabwe needs a second, if not more ETFs and take a shot at diluting single entities and securities from disproportionately shaping market sentiment, or at worst, providing an erroneous measure of other economic indicators like inflation whilst putting pressure on Forex rates. One only needs to look at performance measures. When ETFs have failed to outperform the whole stock market, some investors have had a different view leading to redemptions. However some who are not investors only look at the performance of a chosen investment strategy to then put a value on other economic indicators. A danger of a single ETF in an economic environment where some key traders are hunting for information that supports their hypothesis or target price.

The different levels of liquidity on the S&P500 ETFs plus the availability of one with lower unit pricing allows greater market participation between large institutions and individual retail investors. The participation of multiple stakeholders means that the multiple ETFs dilute their force of potentially being vehicles for limited interests. It is more difficult to coordinate multiple competing entities with varied participants. More ETFs!

We also need to challenge the economic analysis that might become heavily dependent on the biggest counters in the country. Does the ZSE Top10 really represent the Zimbabwean economy as the S&P500 and its ETFs do the US economy? We are a smaller and less formalised economy. I have previously argued for SPACs to be the conduit of hidden value for all stations that want to calculate the value of Zimbabwe Inc.

I would also argue that greater growth will be found in some of the growing entities in renewable energy. These companies need to be brought faster to the capital markets and securities exchange. This will be for their benefit and for the benefit of the country in starting to have more securities that are linked to country's value and growth assets. Solar Energy, gas exploration and even tourism players are part of the high revenue industries of our economy. They however have poor representation in numbers and proportion. ETFs of our top companies do not therefore provide valid indication of our economy.

There is a role for stakeholders to incentivise the companies participating in energy, tourism and construction towards listing. There is benefit to all. 

The talk at the recent Capital Markets Awards was about relevance. Relevance can be found in how economic activity connects stakeholders and defines macroeconomic measures and policy. Players need to target these players coming to the market and through it probably with time have a more diversified Top10 index. When these companies are on board, the more they are fuelled for market penetration on the international stage. This growth vector will make our top companies life cycles start to follow trajectories of international players on the S&P500. The ETFs that cover them will become more indicative of Zimbabwe's economic power and truer discounted value. This is very important as the AfCFTA takes hold. The one ETF story however is very much opposite to this desirable state of companies that have successfully internationalised.

I believe one ETF that is viewed by stakeholders as more a factorial value to the exchange rate and the inflation equation weakens the relevance of the security. The risk around one ETF being misconstrued as what it is not or as a determinant of macroeconomics can only be mitigated by having more ETFs. We  should have more ETFs for top counters where the diversification is improved by more participants from areas of the nation's value chains listing. The government has a role to play too.

Some SOEs could easily be permanent residents of the Top10 counters. Privatisation and part-privatisation needs consideration to clear conclusions and implementations. As such entities enter clear public view, even those wishing to derive forex rates from associated ETFs will only be finding themselves closer to a truer gauge of the economy. 

     

VFEX and its possible growth opportunity from Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) listings

Our Offshore Financial Services Centre (OFSC) that is the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX) has been in operation since 2020. It currently boasts of 2 listed companies since its inception. That in itself is indicative of the environment the exchange is trying to grow in. It is early days but the bourse needs to be early too on some innovations necessary for it to grow in a very competitive market. As I had just finished framing my thoughts for the rest of this analysis, a few developments have been announced thick and fast.

1. Zimbabwe's Finance Minister announced a USD denominated bond being listed on the exchange in the future
2. The exchange signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange
3. VFEX signed an MoU with the Tobacco Industries Marketing Board (TIMB) and the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE)

Some progress beyond being a 2 counters bourse. VFEX is taking steps forward though it remains a short distance from the start in this, its marathon. 

Background and macro-environmental analysis:

Most local and international investors have associated equity investment in Zimbabwe with VFEX's parent company, the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. Investors have also looked to take positions in Zimbabwe through convertible debt securities, corporate bonds, venture capital, private equity, investment banking, and direct partnerships with locals. Via these various investment routes, both local and foreign investors have become accustomed to some entry and exit methods on positions in Zimbabwe integrating a risk assessment of the risk level they are comfortable with as well as whether the return adequately matches this perceived risk. They have become used to certain tools in an environment claimed to be of very high risk to capital invested - maturity risk, income risk, inflation risk, event risks, credit default risks.

An analysis of the macro environment is necessary to identify key opportunities (O) and threats (T) that need addressing for the VFEX to thrive.

Economic situation {Threat (T) or Opportunity (O)}

1. It is undoubted that with a +13million population, Zimbabwe will have a lot of business to conduct. Equity in these businesses across all sectors should find interest from and be tradeable on exchanges far and wide. O
2. With the natural resources that Zimbabwe is endowed with, it is a major supply entity to both local and international businesses. Zimbabwe is positioned in the top quartile for some of the most coveted minerals. O
3. Zimbabwe's current formal employment rate is arguably low inversely with a high rate of informal employment. The government's drive (within Vision 2030 and the National Development Strategy-1) is towards upper middle income. Inherently, formalisation and development of industry and labour force is expected. It is recognisable in this, that more formalised businesses will emerge out of Zimbabwe. O
4. As more formalised businesses emerge, Zimbabwe and Zimbabweans' true buying power will also emerge. O
5. As more formalised businesses emerge, so should a more vivid development-to-maturing industry cycle transition  for SMEs. Some of the SMEs should become strong suppliers and service industries to the main agriculture, tourism and mining industries in Zimbabwe and later growing to compete in the regional markets. Our SMEs' valuations will start to have strong correlations to established players on the domestic and regional markets with participants seeing opportunity in investing in accelerating the growth. O
6. As businesses that have been in decline or that had stagnated recover and grow (growth rate as estimated by the Treasury is +7% this year), Zimbabwe's economic environment will start to provide significant data for the fundamentals investor as well as the economic policy makers. Measures on the population's income like the Marginal Propensity to Save, or the other - to Consume, will start further feeding the models and forecasts of economic growth and familial portfolios of wealth's trajectories. O   
7. Inflation rate reduction and control (which is already evident) will mean expected market returns will better support costs of borrowing and investment risk profile. Rating Agencies could soon be revising Zimbabwean companies' ratings upwards. O
8. Lower costs of borrowing for Zimbabwean companies mean better balance for raising capital through equity or shareholder funds. Weighted Average Cost of Capital has been very high owing to high rates on debt and lower returns on the market that in themselves were eaten into by inflation where trading was on the not so long ago pressured ZWL. O
9. Global money including Western money will always seek sustained high returns. Zimbabwe's economy with stable and clear policy implementation as proven through the Transition Stabilisation Programme and the NDS1 mean a more predictable and measurable environment. War no more! Different sources' inflation figures and exchange rates have had reasonable downward convergence. With the emergence of anti-establishment movements in the West like Reddit traders, who is not to say some of them might start pushing for access to our markets for returns and against their States' stipulated sanctions. O
10. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will provide a growing market allowing for market penetration and scaling up of businesses. Economies of scale will improve margins and company growth. O 
11. The emergence of Cryptocurrencies, related speculation around the volatility will see earnings and capital diversions for a higher rate of return. T However, crypto currency could facilitate unsanctioned trade where there were hindrances to trade. A space to watch! T/O
12. Covid-19 has shored up unspent incomes especially amongst foreign domiciled investors. O
13. Zimbabwe's diaspora is perceived as growing fast in financial literacy, investment power and need to diversify portfolios. O
14. Any policy changes to domestic player participation in some key sectors will threaten SME industry cycle. The need for FDI has to be balanced to allow domestic industry growth. Any government that will seek quick wins by allowing bigger than optimum FDI inflows will only stiffen competition for our mining,  tourism and agricultural based SMEs that are only in nascent. Easing of sanctions as a potential eventuality will still require defensive tact to protect and further develop the entrepreneurs that represent the high informal employment rate. T
15. Any developments in solar, electricity, natural gas and oil will greatly lessen Zimbabwe's import bill if deals are/were struck well. This has downstream positives for market growth where energy becomes cheaper and is even exported! O   

Economic conditions specific to the establishment of the VFEX  are complemented by the following technological factors.

Technological 

1. High speed transactions in other markets make them more attractive to investors and day traders. T
2. Integration of crypto currencies in markets is making for more sophisticated securities. This is an opportunity for us to introduce more stable coins pegged to our primary industry outputs, especially minerals like gold, lithium or rare earth elements. O
3. Cryptology integration also provides mitigation to (1) as blockchain technology adoption can mean better settlement times on the VFEX exchange. O
4. Technological advancement pace is fast and requires investment capability that matches other exchanges. T. This however is an opportunity as the bourse grows as it drives the ZSE and Ministry of Finance to consider viable partnerships and/or private investment on the bourse itself whilst satisfying all State requirements. O 
5. FinTech is allowing global dominance for more advanced stockbrokers. Underlying the VFEX are associated Stockbrokers that imperatively have to also improve their technological capabilities. Capital was said to flow where it is comfortable. I say, capital also flows fast  and in heaps where better technology handles it! T  
6. With the best technology comes strong market strength. Information asymmetry and resultant market strength is an issue the VFEX needs to address and alley investor fears on. T 

Political and Legal

The political and legal environment is required to support adequate innovations and implementation of advanced processes. The analysis preceding this, and the monitoring or oversight requires amongst policy makers and stakeholder leadership groups, advanced capabilities in deciphering financial engineering and technology .

1. Governance and legislation needs to support the bourse to seek and conclude partnership agreements that support its technical soundness and sustainability. 
2. The stakeholders need to understand and study in detail all the types of securities that can be introduced to the exchange. This is important as we need to advance our equity markets whilst also needing to limit any undue influence on key economic measures such as inflation emanating from market behaviour due to unpoliced market weaknesses.

Where to for the VFEX?

From the above environmental analysis, there are key threats and opportunities that the VFEX needs to integrate in its strategy. In addressing these, the exchange is believed will find itself on a growth path towards regional and global competitiveness.
 

If there was a question we need to ask of our VFEX, this question would be; What do we need the VFEX to look and operate like for the wide world of investors to find it impossible to ignore?

 

Key issues to address

There is always the imperative of improving market strength. The solutions to this are both technological as well as utilising the best of our human resource capabilities. There is key investment required to bring even the website of the exchange to world-class status. We need not to kid ourselves here. The world's money is looking for world-class technology, world-class exchanges, world-class reputations, and world-class returns!
 
The lack of listings at this early stage is slightly forgivable. However, as shown within the economic environment analysis above; Zimbabwe provides an opportunity of investing in business environment of high growth rates. Investors can find projects with future cash flows that provide positive Net Present Values. It is upon these conditions that our human resources capabilities need to be deployed.
 
The human resources capabilities need not be within the exchange personnel, but these are human resource capabilities that can be found within the SMEs sector itself and within captains of industry for well established companies - especially those that have had experience with being listed on the main bourse in the domestic market or on stock exchanges in other countries.
 

The idea here is; Zimbabweans at different levels of the industry need to work together towards bringing stations of value to the capital raising opportunity that is provided by an exchange such as the VFEX.

 

Experienced industry players who have worked in procurement, as executives and as market analysts provide Zimbabwe with an opportunity to grow our SMEs. Some of them have made a name for themselves and are very likely to find themselves with both power and legitimacy when it comes to who investors are going to listen to. It is this point that provides such key players with an opportunity to form Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs).

 
SPACs have been listed in countries that have more advanced markets such as Singapore .

 
Whilst these entities face critique and suspicion in other advanced markets, we still need to analyse how they are suitable for our own environment - especially around the small to medium sized enterprises that have not yet developed their governance, digitalisation and investor information provision to an advanced level. Our local experienced managers and strategists who have worked with some of these growing companies will be able to identify and select companies that are on a growth trajectory as they start to be contracted as suppliers or support services to more established companies in an economic environment with growing demand from a population with increasing income and government policy targeting upper middle income in a period of under 10 years. SPACs could list on the VFEX with seasoned managers and business people having better understanding of other businesses they have come across as suppliers, competitors, nascent players, buyers or substitutes in markets they are specialists. The SMEs players will have adequate support to meet the discipline requirements of the covenants that might come with the much needed capital injections.

 
The formation of these acquisition companies will therefore provide the governance and company development oversight that is required by investors to mitigate against maturity risk on their investments. We do have enough of this experienced human resource which with resources can then target promising SMEs to inject both capital and mentorship support in the early stages of development of these companies. Were it their choice and financial capacity, these experienced managers would be engaging in venture capital or private equity investments. Where they are not, this is where their capability should be deployed and start to attract investment whilst providing the guarantee of  adequate governance where investors might have been worried. Governance responsibility will initially be weighted more on seasoned SPAC managers before transfer to then developed managers at exit or equity buyback.

For our SMEs, Zimbabwe requires a mix of building product and service brand attractions and adding a  level of trust by bringing management brands. If one asks who has adequate investment information in Zimbabwe that can be used for due diligence on investment opportunities, experienced managers and advisors come up together with market analysts. All of them with their different talents, history and networks make management brands that if delegated to acquire or invest in SMEs make SPACs attractive on a bourse such as the VFEX. We need to build names like other countries have for their fund managers and executives. 

Policymakers in the country need to continue debating and travelling the learning curve such that they can make country-benefitting policy conclusions on such an opportunity. They have to ensure adequate legal frameworks are there to protect all stakeholders. Parliament as well as financial intelligence units will need to continue analysing such opportunities in order to timely introduce innovations that elevate SMEs, communities, families, and the country at large through VFEX as an unmissable opportunity for investors.

The VFEX has to uplift its market capitalisation. SPACs and not just listed single companies is argued to be a viable option. There are not many Padenga's or Seed Co's at the moment. SPACs bring more investment traffic as they have the ability to combine a capital raising opportunity for  disaggregated small entities which otherwise miss out on investment due to a lack of structural engineering of securities on the exchanges.   

There are risks. 

Exchanges in small markets can become centres of craft and graft that does not benefit host countries and the wider stakeholders. SPACs could anchor a bourse as a credible investment centre rather than a hot bed of speculation and questionable company information. Legislature and Executive have to execute framework building for facilitation of  investment as the dominant activity and the greater good for the country coming out from an exchange as VFEX. All stakeholders must work hard and harder for VFEX's opportunities to be fully utilised. 

Zimbabwe and the issues with Crypto currency adoption

Blockchain and crypto currencies need user cases in Zimbabwe that will satisfy all stakeholders by way of benefit and by way of risk mitigation capability - our business people, our different people in different geographical locations, our different people of different financial literacy level, our people of different digital literacy levels, our public administrators of the common purse, our politicians, international trade partners and signatory to BIPPAs, multilaterals etc. Their story and crypto’s story is yet to be written in the same language and indeed written in full.

 

There is a place for all things digital and that place is present and more in the future. Working with a common vision is what brings the future closer to today.

 

There still is a lot to be understood and the risks from crypto coin volatility make any central banker crazy to have it in their monetary system. It is those fire scenarios that crypto advocates and the risk averse policy makers need to converge on.

 

There is a lot of risk individual traders elect to carry in trading at this present time. This risk however accumulates and aggregates as a national compound risk. When it grows and shocks, this is upon the public administrator! Individualism, behavioural economies and social trends then meet politics! The latter expected to be the host giving full board as if it is always furnished and stocked up for this.

 

See these conditions below:

In the West, the proportion of people who can hold a loss position in coins beyond their next income or more is greater than Zimbabwe. They will not need that money in the next 30days and can wait for the next rally because bread and butter is already covered, and at a national level, forex requirements for imports are adequately covered with a lot of national forex reserves and significantly greater export orders for months to come! That is not the story for MaDzimbahwe!

 

Scenario time!

Now imagine there are just 80,000 of us in Zimbabwe who get into the crypto currency market with 45% likely needing to make withdrawals or sells before the next income. Let us say they have made trades of US$75 on average in various crypto coins. That translates to US$2.7m total being likely needed by 36,000 households within the month of the US$6m invested/traded/speculated.

 

Now remember these conditions:

Poorer families are usually less diversified to manage their risks, 

&

Speculative investments by poorer families at many times have weaker Due Diligence or require less due diligence if they are risk averse. This trend is likely changing with the emergence of Robinhood and Reddit traders. Some of the DD is widely available but some goes without being read or understood!

 

So remember the US$2.7m = 45% likely needing trades to be urgently closed back to fiat out of a total of US$6m (80k Zimbabweans putting up US$75 each). Also consider this number against forex outflow volumes for total national trade in the period, consider internal market’s rate of return (as a potential opportunity cost) and also the inflation rate. 

Now the crypto market has its ups and downs. Imagine a rail line needing to pass through every high point it can find in Chimanimani - Manicaland. Beautiful place, but this isn't! It will really be kwire dzike kwiiiiire dzike dziiiiike nyuuureee kwiiiire dzike. You get the gist- that is the value trajectory on crypto market as a whole at present. 

Source: CoinMarketCap.com

Worse for the earlier mentioned condition where trades are not well diversified - the Bitcoin chete chete portfolios, Etherium cc, Solano cc, etc. for the likely short term speculative trade in poorer households. Remember there are trading fees that for an average Zimbabwean would be high as well.

Stay with me, please as a home situation needs grafting into the scenario. 

One of Zimbabwe’s key earning season is from around April to about August as tobacco and other agricultural produce is harvested and sold. Factoring in payment timelines, from May to September is the time this money is in people’s hands/accounts/wallets (and possibly think digital wallets) to manage, invest or spend. This is very key in how we as a nation; how we as the Zimbabwe of Agro-base and mining-base will be doing economically. 

Now, that that farmers and miners with money reality is here, see what the crypto market can be like in the same period. The crypto market in the same period this year fell by 49% from its USD1.842 trillion highest point on 12 May 2021 to its lowest point in May around the 23rd - a market cap of USD0.937T. 

Source: CoinMarketCap.com

For those needing their money at the end of the month including some of the example farmers and miners that would have thought of diversifying or multiplying at the start of May, that is a worst case scenario risk of that USD2.7m that went into buy positions coming back as USD1.37m. US$1.33 million has been lost to a sell-off! 

That is farmers and miners sweat turned to grain, leaf and precious metal, cum money to the tune of USD2.7m! After a few clicks to buy and a few clicks to sell, because you now need to buy bread, uniforms plus inputs maybe for a winter crop; it is now US$1.33 million less! Somebody say it isn’t! Where did it all go? 

Wealth transfer out of a nation if you bought the high from other countries and selling the dip to the same countries who are not Zimbabwe. And that was in 11 days. Do our internal markets lose that much?

 

Now if we say that required welfare higher-impact US$2.7m falls by the same percentage into required redemption period; US$1.33m (ZWL113 - 186m) would have been lost in total for 36,000 (45% of scenario investors) Zimbabwean individuals or households - Z$3,100 to Z$5,200 per individual! Now what does that translate to if that repeats itself quarterly in a year or more? 

Source: CoinMarketCap.com

The Crypto market's capitalisation dipped to USD0.886 trillion by end of June. Now it has recovered to USD1.491T as of 01-09-2021; this is just over 80% of the value at entry - 20% loss if you did not get it. Can we afford that as a nation? The contract farmer has payments to make, the bank needs its money, the nation is expectant on a level of self-funding and sustainability for the next crop seasons and the next mining expedition. The fiscus now needs to find a way for the President to now fund the next inputs scheme. The opposition is stating this is a vote buying exercise, parliamentarians are debating the efficacy of state sponsored and controlled programmes, the schools are seeing fee defaults and children’s education being threatened etc. 

We are back to the different stakeholders; see what responsibility they place on each other post such a financial system hurricane. Someone hanzi obva ati; "IMF do not give Zimbabwe any SDRs" on top of that! Chiri mupoto ndodya naniko? Chimbambaira....

Also imagine the scenario where transactions are quoted in the coins at big industrial player or national imports level.

Example being 1k oil barrels/BTC (Bitcoin). At BTC = US$35,000 that is looking for US$35 million for a million barrels of oil for our nice cars, ambulances, tractors, mining machinery, generators etc. But if the contract payment is due after a BTC rally now at US$52,000 you now need US$17m more! Chinzwa munhu; “Guys chihurumende ichi chakwidza mutengo wemafuta futi!” We can speak of using the Futures markets for the crypto but they bring downside risks as well and very complex to manage from a Zimbabwe situated in a place as big as this world. UAE, Qatar, Russia, Iran, Israel, USA, OPEC, UN, Paris Accord, climate change initiatives, green energy, Elon Musk tweets and all the spanners into the works towards Zimbabwe's desired oil price point by a certain date.  

Well, that is the doomsday scenario preacher robe won enough and now it stinks of fear sweat! 

There definitely is a case and use cases already showing potential benefits. These cases are suitable for Zimbabwe, feasible and should be acceptable to Zimbabwean users. NFTs have had use (but still with associated coin volatility risk) - this is not financial advice or any advice or policy challenge/promotion, but a mere observation! 

Crypto coins still need a design that manages their value. Do they need to replace the ZWL? I perceive there could be room for both, especially where the fiat currency remains associated with high inflation downsides. A crypto coin by the Central Bank becomes a tool to allow citizens access to a store of value and value more internalised. Minerals managed-stock linked coins? Valuable, rare, not easily imitable and organised characteristics!

Are we able to replace mining bonds with mineral coins? Are we able to internationalise this and get investment linked to stock and future yields in the sector? The US$12B mining strategy integrating citizen participation and widened citizen equity to national development and positive international market trends?

I am not an expert, but a citizen wondering. What if we…what will be?

If we…that could bite us - if we…that might help us. Only the type of thinking here. 

Takamirira mhinduro dzevamwe.

Zimbabwe's US dollar addicts, poor prescriptions adherence, and refusing rehab

Zimbabwe's monetary system is a complex system and the answers might be in continued restructuring. Pane basa rekuita.

Inflation remains high at +50%. Within this context is a great and undeniable achievement looking back at our immediate history and previous form with managing inflation in the first decade of the 21st century. Some however presently look at these inflation figures as not supported by bank interest rates for ZWL accounts. This still means a significant population would normally resort to USD as store of value despite the fall in inflation. Low bank interest rates are thought to be creating an internal forex demand factor in addition to forex outflow levels. Whilst inflation cannot be arrested today, what we do today needs to be about bringing that rate to a universally sustainable level in Zimbabwe. Otherwise it will always be a case of little fires everywhere.  

 

There remains a weakness in how forex usage is accounted for post transaction completion after a winning bid at auction. We are not clear on the weighting of internal (within Zimbabwe) transactions like instances of reselling outside the auction system against settling import bills. One asks whether we have tight enough periodic measures of internal forex withdrawals against import bill settlements? If it was let us say a 2-5 day cycle, we would have a clearer indication of how much USD does the rounds with the ZWL before going beyond our borders or staying put in someone’s mattress or returning to auction in USD or ZWL form. Help me out as per below.

Is it possible to go and seek US$500,000 and obtain it by parting with ZWL42,5m - then sell the same US$0.5m at ZWL62,5m - at the next two auction rounds come with more ZWL gunpowder to outbid competition by the necessary margin and obtain via the ZWL62.5m a sum of US$710,000 even if you are an outlier bidder at 1USD : 88ZWL instead of 85ZWL?  This is US$210,000 above the initial US$500,000! You could then import what you need for your business and also something you have always wanted in your garage? It would be the last bit where ZWL value goes as this is not Capex. That value starts to deteriorate with not much value generated. A liability that includes need for costly imported car parts for servicing, more fuel and many other bling bling things. Someone help out on whether there is no such possibility - is this a possibility with our Auction system? Is doing this twice or multiple times possible?

 

Lack of insight into the profits and profit margins of auction beneficiaries. 

Accounting for profit levels and adequately taxing them or incentivising their reinvestment gives better views on: 

i. the sustainability of our pricing compared to customer market earnings; 

ii. how much monopolies are keeping import prices at the top end; 

iii. how barriers to entry and killing of competition from SMEs is being perpetuated - SMEs would otherwise create progressive import cost advantage innovation all round through competition - lowering USD demand amongst players whilst also putting downward pressure on inflation in our pricing model - talk of the agglomeration effect that is also very necessary for our recovery and building upon Vision2030 and inherently the National Development Strategy - I; 

iv. We might also discover that profits from these monopolies have an unhealthy proportion that is not Capex - our big cars, Italian tiles, Turkish rugs etc. yet as a nation not yet funding at the adequate level an optimum import substitution industry. Trade-offs have to be confronted and dealt with! Part of realism! 

I must here acknowledge that those that have made their money will want to enjoy it. We must also be clear that five Pagani Zonda importations into New York is very different in impact to the US economy compared to the same going into Mogadishu, Kampala, Kinshasa and Harare individually. These things do happen but there is a fair price to pay in our social contract with the nation that hosts our businesses. 

The point being, in the business cycle might be a significant forex cost factor from expensive luxury imports that is too significant for the stage of our development and the size of our economy. Such spending takes away a lot from capacity building for forex inflow vs outflow positive balances. Increased internal demand for ZWL transacting follows as compared to all the many USD transactions of various urgency and necessity levels in the nation. If anyone has studied silver and how it moves in the market compared to gold; silver’s many uses makes it hard to predict its value movement as besides store of value usage it has significant volumes in industrial uses, jewellery, coins etc. which gold has less of, especially silver's significant industrial demand with no substitutes. We have failed to make the USD be like gold through fewer uses limited to imports/reserve currency. We treat it like silver with many demands including individual current account holding and continued basic internal transactions. The silver market has had attempts, though failed, of adverse monopoly and concomitantly price fixing. Globally, probably market size makes securities impossible to tame, but in a smaller market as ours, monopoly and price fixing is possible if given gaping opportunity. 

We have to factor in where State institutions are in around Forex auctions (passively or deliberately); are they bidders at the auction by reason of low yield on collecting forex denominated dues within export and import receipts? We are paying for vaccines, we are bringing in equipment at tax free rates, we have leakages in high forex earning commodities, yet some of the primary earners only see their payments in the highly pressured ZWL - tobacco farmers etc. Is there a transitory and delayed benefit in the impact of the auction system that we need to tense up for temporarily? Will the above pay dividends soon including for the growers of Virginia leaves and mattock carrying miners? When can they save up and grow up to buy curing equipment for themselves? There is a lot of complexity and what appears at times as parallel monetary systems needing a quantum leap to operate from one and develop from the other.

A wondering Zimbabwean asks 5 questions: 

1. Are there solutions in reviewing the loan rates of FCAs and of ZWL accounts against inflation? 

2. Will that make money stay in the banks? Will that give structure and efficiency to the forex system such that players know forex utilisation needs stringent investment appraisal that meet requisite payback levels? 

3. Does the Zimbabwean person need to have more access to stores of value in a more efficient manner? Is Fintech sleeping on an opportunity? 

4. Is there opportunity for an optional SADC central banks' denominated digital currency to share risk? 

5. If too broad, a gold market pegged Zimbabwean digital currency of a finite circulation volume- as we mine (gold not crypto) and store a certain amount of bullion, have the value correlate with our Bullion and against the gold price? Is for Zimbabwe then a well managed gold standard currency worth consideration, with seeing what portion of bullion could be apportioned to the currency whilst the rest can be exported? Selling and mining to manage currency? 

Sometimes listening to motherland's Economists, business people and economic observers, thinkers and opinionistas, one sees us Africans following text for text economic equations for the West and trying transposition without alteration onto the African circumstances. We are in very different conditions of leverage in the global sphere bafethu! 

I am sorry, it will not work! 

A tall and longer reach jabbing boxer does not follow the short boxer's aggressive and close combat tactics bafethu! 

We are different by balance of trade, value chain integration and participaton, technological advancement, economic activities and associated types of rents we can collect from our activities' comparative and competitive advantages. That is before we even talk of social trends we also look to copy........... and just paste! We need to search for what works best for us in our monetary circumstances and more.  

Asante sana.

 

Of ZACC and an opposing internal sanctions regime against facts.

I have seen enough of many tools lying idle. I have heard enough of them making chiming noises deliberately away from their optimal work benches. Most must reasonably be tired of this real-work avoidance when the tools are sharp (by their own claims), and the field is not complex (also by the tools’ own claims). How difficult can it be to be at the cutting edge of truth-finding if one has a claim to excellence?  How deeply hidden is this truth we say we are denied daily? What forces compel one to run away here and from such a noble effort? Hope it is not a matter deeper than the tools’ reach.

I hear  court judgements are open to expert critical reviews (we see many such contributions but elsewhere) and integration of some doctrine of Stare Decisis. What I also hear in our cases in Zimbabwe are soundbites on high decibels connotating corruption as being dealt by a claimed to be very flawed judicial system. Most are not hearing the outcomes of expert case reviews on where and how criminals can be said to be getting away with crimes. No loopholes, no technicality aspects that have been identified as facilitating the freedom of alleged criminals. No debates reaching the Legislature with solutions, or white papers that attempt to close any claimed or identified loopholes. Little if not nothing! Probably this is settled by me religiously reading blogs on Saturdays? Do we really have big issues bedevilling this nation that is full of educated experts with friends in high places who give them keys to lock the country away from progress' pantries? There are no cases lodged even for the record at the courts in opposition to non-delivery of justice in ZACC cases, and no real fear of setting dangerous precedents in current cases. This is a worthwhile objective for completion where justice is sought, or where there are loud claims of its non-existence. Without this where we say there is no justice, those who claim they will be better contributors to the judicial pillar seem to be aiming for a chance to arbitrarily pronounce things differently, or to just continue with what they claim to be poor application of the law. Yet some actors are officers of the courts defending those whom ZACC is pursuing. Think about it.

When urban councils start having their office bearers pursued, let us see how many ruling party MPs will take time to be their counsel. We seem to have two options of either agreeing ZACC is pursuing corruption as best as it can, or that corruption is not as big a problem as some claim. Why? Where it is alleged; some even expertly stand for the defendants. Can they be on two sides of the argument especially if they on one represent a people’s hope against corruption and on the other hand, they represent those accused of violating the people’s hopes? Maybe they will claim they know who corruption should pursue besides their clients who concomitantly are part of the political force they oppose. If they will say so, where are the cases they are taking to the courts when they wear their political hats? 

No one exposes, preferably in depth, how poor the judiciary and the prosecutors are besides the loudness of hashtags that are starting to be a symptom of the unhinged Age of Great Denialism in some fact-hating and evidence deficient centres of influence. These centres are quick to claim no rule of law yet frequently seeking recourse and refuge within the law with pleasure. Quick to claim a worsening situation when nowhere in history we have seen as many frequent high-profile investigations of office bearers and those who have vacated. If some know the law so much, yet they too are participants in its crafting and application, and also claim to be excellent future custodians of government, it should always make us go back to the question; how do they not show beyond doubt where and how the law is being ineffective? One cannot be the solution to what they do not show deep understanding on, and as a corollary, one who has deep insight on an issue affecting many should already be showing evidence-based credible solution propositions.

ZACC is working on cases and should be excused from certain quarters' anecdotal narratives that people think are inconsequential by reason of having working fingers and social media accounts. Before demeaning its level of functionality or effectiveness to citizens, we need those that claim its failure to be clear on the where and how. 

I feel some Zimbabweans are being sanctioned internally on facts around institutional performance. Totally held hostage to the superficiality of anecdotes yet prohibited from developing towards seeking the sharpness of valid studies of our circumstances.  

A culture has been imbedded in our conduct to take high volume soundbites of unevidenced crisis to the world ahead of thorough analysis and mitigation proposals. Instant gratification on social media is for the lazy followers of mere voices careless on validity of content!

We need representatives to be clear on their preference. There is pleasure and short myopic mileage being sought through the “Dear World, here is our worse news!” movements. There is little preference to influence and be influenced by messages like “because of X, Y and Z, this is poor by our Zimbabwean standards and what we are aiming for in this country is to improve it through 1, 2 and 3. We therefore will be doing a, b and c now!”. 

It is the preference of the mere catastrophising that compels me to view some amongst Zimbabwean politicians as the lazy high priests in the claimed to be synagogues of excellence. 

Against their high-volume soundbites and hashtags of crises, I have taken a position 'to be very wary of the yeast of these Pharisees’. Mindsets are being fermented and aroused to negate and not acknowledge any progress. 'Round everything down to zero' is the instruction! We then are not even in a position to further sharpen the working tools. At an expense, there is too much degradation of our institutions’ ascendency to powerful common utility due to partisan efforts of gaining a following and refusing competitors any attribution of value. A wise nation’s people will follow the power of finding solutions through the understanding and relationships with deep facts. We do however have a problem! 

The widows and orphans of deep knowledge are being robbed of their last senses! 'Musabvume kuti kune chakanaka kana chimwe hacho'. A lot have decoupled their political currency and modus operandi from facts and resultant solutions formulation. There is now an urgent responsibility for all of us to first seek facts around our beliefs! Solutions and balance should surely then follow!