Exchange Traded Funds, Forex and Inflation in our smaller economic market

There is a time when having only one of something is the worst situation, having zero of it being better, and having multiples of it best. This is the case with Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in certain market sizes. The foreign exchange rate and ETFs have a relationship! This relationship is not consistent, but has its moments around major events in economic cycles. Over periods of time, correlations can be identified between domestic currency and an ETF that follows the greatest of weight amongst all the counters in the country. It is the same with indices.

There are important measures that one needs to look at when measuring the risk that any security or group of securities pose to the financial system or to the markets.

There has always been the following questions on Zimbabwe:

1. What drives markets? In other words, what influences the markets?
2. Where there is a black market rate for foreign exchange rate, where does it look to for some form of price discovery?
3. Does a reputation and urgency,  added to power mean a stakeholder could drive market sentiment and direction even for a brief moment against what would be otherwise opposing market fundamentals?

Applied to the Zimbabwean situation and contrasted against the chosen exemplar markets, the information below provides insights on market risks from securities and the suitability and validity - let us say the transferability and generalisability - of theories and practices we adopt from totally different markets.

 

1. The S&P 500, market capitalisation (US$31.6T), 68% of market capitalisation (US$47T) in the USA, is slightly higher than the proportion the ZSE top-10 counters make up of the market value of all Zimbabwean traded securities (53.5%).
2. The one ETF on the ZSE top 10 has a Market Cap of 0.04% of the ZSE.
3. There are 4 main ETFs in the US for the 68% of US Market capitalisation and these are stated to have different investment strategies in the top market cap tier counters and different levels of liquidity.
4. There is only 1 ETF for the 53% of ZSE equities.
5. The S&P 500 is widely regarded as a true measure of the US economy
6. The ETFs for the US choose between 500 companies and for the ZSE chooses between 10 or ALL 10.
7. The S&P is full of global companies whose demand and supply chains reach across the globe and which alone can run a conference to compete with Davos. They are big exporters that compete with whole country economies on the S&P 500.
8. The Top 10 ZSE stocks have limited regional or even continental reach in terms of market share, industry leadership, and any Corporate Political Activity outside Zimbabwe. 

From the above, the S&P 500 is greatly diversified. Whilst the value trends for the different ETFs closely mirror each other, their disaggregation and independence mean the different entities provide some form of price consensus. Derived valuations of the market or strength of any other security does not become too dependent on market error in tracking the the S&P500. 

All the above is not mitigated by having a single ETF on the ZSE focusing on the Top 10 counters. The situation instead becomes the foundation of derivative problems. As with major counters' ETFs, they become the reflection of the market and the economy and start to become a reference point. Where there is not much trust in reference points, they become a favourite or preferred reference point for certain market players. It is unfortunate that when market players have previously referred to certain known institutions, gone through some vacuum as they found no other they want to believe, the return of the same institution or its players can be found substantive enough to be the vacuum filler. It is the worst case scenario of having one of something. 

With what ETFs can become in symbolism, Zimbabwe needs a second, if not more ETFs and take a shot at diluting single entities and securities from disproportionately shaping market sentiment, or at worst, providing an erroneous measure of other economic indicators like inflation whilst putting pressure on Forex rates. One only needs to look at performance measures. When ETFs have failed to outperform the whole stock market, some investors have had a different view leading to redemptions. However some who are not investors only look at the performance of a chosen investment strategy to then put a value on other economic indicators. A danger of a single ETF in an economic environment where some key traders are hunting for information that supports their hypothesis or target price.

The different levels of liquidity on the S&P500 ETFs plus the availability of one with lower unit pricing allows greater market participation between large institutions and individual retail investors. The participation of multiple stakeholders means that the multiple ETFs dilute their force of potentially being vehicles for limited interests. It is more difficult to coordinate multiple competing entities with varied participants. More ETFs!

We also need to challenge the economic analysis that might become heavily dependent on the biggest counters in the country. Does the ZSE Top10 really represent the Zimbabwean economy as the S&P500 and its ETFs do the US economy? We are a smaller and less formalised economy. I have previously argued for SPACs to be the conduit of hidden value for all stations that want to calculate the value of Zimbabwe Inc.

I would also argue that greater growth will be found in some of the growing entities in renewable energy. These companies need to be brought faster to the capital markets and securities exchange. This will be for their benefit and for the benefit of the country in starting to have more securities that are linked to country's value and growth assets. Solar Energy, gas exploration and even tourism players are part of the high revenue industries of our economy. They however have poor representation in numbers and proportion. ETFs of our top companies do not therefore provide valid indication of our economy.

There is a role for stakeholders to incentivise the companies participating in energy, tourism and construction towards listing. There is benefit to all. 

The talk at the recent Capital Markets Awards was about relevance. Relevance can be found in how economic activity connects stakeholders and defines macroeconomic measures and policy. Players need to target these players coming to the market and through it probably with time have a more diversified Top10 index. When these companies are on board, the more they are fuelled for market penetration on the international stage. This growth vector will make our top companies life cycles start to follow trajectories of international players on the S&P500. The ETFs that cover them will become more indicative of Zimbabwe's economic power and truer discounted value. This is very important as the AfCFTA takes hold. The one ETF story however is very much opposite to this desirable state of companies that have successfully internationalised.

I believe one ETF that is viewed by stakeholders as more a factorial value to the exchange rate and the inflation equation weakens the relevance of the security. The risk around one ETF being misconstrued as what it is not or as a determinant of macroeconomics can only be mitigated by having more ETFs. We  should have more ETFs for top counters where the diversification is improved by more participants from areas of the nation's value chains listing. The government has a role to play too.

Some SOEs could easily be permanent residents of the Top10 counters. Privatisation and part-privatisation needs consideration to clear conclusions and implementations. As such entities enter clear public view, even those wishing to derive forex rates from associated ETFs will only be finding themselves closer to a truer gauge of the economy. 

     

VFEX and its possible growth opportunity from Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) listings

Our Offshore Financial Services Centre (OFSC) that is the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX) has been in operation since 2020. It currently boasts of 2 listed companies since its inception. That in itself is indicative of the environment the exchange is trying to grow in. It is early days but the bourse needs to be early too on some innovations necessary for it to grow in a very competitive market. As I had just finished framing my thoughts for the rest of this analysis, a few developments have been announced thick and fast.

1. Zimbabwe's Finance Minister announced a USD denominated bond being listed on the exchange in the future
2. The exchange signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange
3. VFEX signed an MoU with the Tobacco Industries Marketing Board (TIMB) and the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE)

Some progress beyond being a 2 counters bourse. VFEX is taking steps forward though it remains a short distance from the start in this, its marathon. 

Background and macro-environmental analysis:

Most local and international investors have associated equity investment in Zimbabwe with VFEX's parent company, the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. Investors have also looked to take positions in Zimbabwe through convertible debt securities, corporate bonds, venture capital, private equity, investment banking, and direct partnerships with locals. Via these various investment routes, both local and foreign investors have become accustomed to some entry and exit methods on positions in Zimbabwe integrating a risk assessment of the risk level they are comfortable with as well as whether the return adequately matches this perceived risk. They have become used to certain tools in an environment claimed to be of very high risk to capital invested - maturity risk, income risk, inflation risk, event risks, credit default risks.

An analysis of the macro environment is necessary to identify key opportunities (O) and threats (T) that need addressing for the VFEX to thrive.

Economic situation {Threat (T) or Opportunity (O)}

1. It is undoubted that with a +13million population, Zimbabwe will have a lot of business to conduct. Equity in these businesses across all sectors should find interest from and be tradeable on exchanges far and wide. O
2. With the natural resources that Zimbabwe is endowed with, it is a major supply entity to both local and international businesses. Zimbabwe is positioned in the top quartile for some of the most coveted minerals. O
3. Zimbabwe's current formal employment rate is arguably low inversely with a high rate of informal employment. The government's drive (within Vision 2030 and the National Development Strategy-1) is towards upper middle income. Inherently, formalisation and development of industry and labour force is expected. It is recognisable in this, that more formalised businesses will emerge out of Zimbabwe. O
4. As more formalised businesses emerge, Zimbabwe and Zimbabweans' true buying power will also emerge. O
5. As more formalised businesses emerge, so should a more vivid development-to-maturing industry cycle transition  for SMEs. Some of the SMEs should become strong suppliers and service industries to the main agriculture, tourism and mining industries in Zimbabwe and later growing to compete in the regional markets. Our SMEs' valuations will start to have strong correlations to established players on the domestic and regional markets with participants seeing opportunity in investing in accelerating the growth. O
6. As businesses that have been in decline or that had stagnated recover and grow (growth rate as estimated by the Treasury is +7% this year), Zimbabwe's economic environment will start to provide significant data for the fundamentals investor as well as the economic policy makers. Measures on the population's income like the Marginal Propensity to Save, or the other - to Consume, will start further feeding the models and forecasts of economic growth and familial portfolios of wealth's trajectories. O   
7. Inflation rate reduction and control (which is already evident) will mean expected market returns will better support costs of borrowing and investment risk profile. Rating Agencies could soon be revising Zimbabwean companies' ratings upwards. O
8. Lower costs of borrowing for Zimbabwean companies mean better balance for raising capital through equity or shareholder funds. Weighted Average Cost of Capital has been very high owing to high rates on debt and lower returns on the market that in themselves were eaten into by inflation where trading was on the not so long ago pressured ZWL. O
9. Global money including Western money will always seek sustained high returns. Zimbabwe's economy with stable and clear policy implementation as proven through the Transition Stabilisation Programme and the NDS1 mean a more predictable and measurable environment. War no more! Different sources' inflation figures and exchange rates have had reasonable downward convergence. With the emergence of anti-establishment movements in the West like Reddit traders, who is not to say some of them might start pushing for access to our markets for returns and against their States' stipulated sanctions. O
10. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will provide a growing market allowing for market penetration and scaling up of businesses. Economies of scale will improve margins and company growth. O 
11. The emergence of Cryptocurrencies, related speculation around the volatility will see earnings and capital diversions for a higher rate of return. T However, crypto currency could facilitate unsanctioned trade where there were hindrances to trade. A space to watch! T/O
12. Covid-19 has shored up unspent incomes especially amongst foreign domiciled investors. O
13. Zimbabwe's diaspora is perceived as growing fast in financial literacy, investment power and need to diversify portfolios. O
14. Any policy changes to domestic player participation in some key sectors will threaten SME industry cycle. The need for FDI has to be balanced to allow domestic industry growth. Any government that will seek quick wins by allowing bigger than optimum FDI inflows will only stiffen competition for our mining,  tourism and agricultural based SMEs that are only in nascent. Easing of sanctions as a potential eventuality will still require defensive tact to protect and further develop the entrepreneurs that represent the high informal employment rate. T
15. Any developments in solar, electricity, natural gas and oil will greatly lessen Zimbabwe's import bill if deals are/were struck well. This has downstream positives for market growth where energy becomes cheaper and is even exported! O   

Economic conditions specific to the establishment of the VFEX  are complemented by the following technological factors.

Technological 

1. High speed transactions in other markets make them more attractive to investors and day traders. T
2. Integration of crypto currencies in markets is making for more sophisticated securities. This is an opportunity for us to introduce more stable coins pegged to our primary industry outputs, especially minerals like gold, lithium or rare earth elements. O
3. Cryptology integration also provides mitigation to (1) as blockchain technology adoption can mean better settlement times on the VFEX exchange. O
4. Technological advancement pace is fast and requires investment capability that matches other exchanges. T. This however is an opportunity as the bourse grows as it drives the ZSE and Ministry of Finance to consider viable partnerships and/or private investment on the bourse itself whilst satisfying all State requirements. O 
5. FinTech is allowing global dominance for more advanced stockbrokers. Underlying the VFEX are associated Stockbrokers that imperatively have to also improve their technological capabilities. Capital was said to flow where it is comfortable. I say, capital also flows fast  and in heaps where better technology handles it! T  
6. With the best technology comes strong market strength. Information asymmetry and resultant market strength is an issue the VFEX needs to address and alley investor fears on. T 

Political and Legal

The political and legal environment is required to support adequate innovations and implementation of advanced processes. The analysis preceding this, and the monitoring or oversight requires amongst policy makers and stakeholder leadership groups, advanced capabilities in deciphering financial engineering and technology .

1. Governance and legislation needs to support the bourse to seek and conclude partnership agreements that support its technical soundness and sustainability. 
2. The stakeholders need to understand and study in detail all the types of securities that can be introduced to the exchange. This is important as we need to advance our equity markets whilst also needing to limit any undue influence on key economic measures such as inflation emanating from market behaviour due to unpoliced market weaknesses.

Where to for the VFEX?

From the above environmental analysis, there are key threats and opportunities that the VFEX needs to integrate in its strategy. In addressing these, the exchange is believed will find itself on a growth path towards regional and global competitiveness.
 

If there was a question we need to ask of our VFEX, this question would be; What do we need the VFEX to look and operate like for the wide world of investors to find it impossible to ignore?

 

Key issues to address

There is always the imperative of improving market strength. The solutions to this are both technological as well as utilising the best of our human resource capabilities. There is key investment required to bring even the website of the exchange to world-class status. We need not to kid ourselves here. The world's money is looking for world-class technology, world-class exchanges, world-class reputations, and world-class returns!
 
The lack of listings at this early stage is slightly forgivable. However, as shown within the economic environment analysis above; Zimbabwe provides an opportunity of investing in business environment of high growth rates. Investors can find projects with future cash flows that provide positive Net Present Values. It is upon these conditions that our human resources capabilities need to be deployed.
 
The human resources capabilities need not be within the exchange personnel, but these are human resource capabilities that can be found within the SMEs sector itself and within captains of industry for well established companies - especially those that have had experience with being listed on the main bourse in the domestic market or on stock exchanges in other countries.
 

The idea here is; Zimbabweans at different levels of the industry need to work together towards bringing stations of value to the capital raising opportunity that is provided by an exchange such as the VFEX.

 

Experienced industry players who have worked in procurement, as executives and as market analysts provide Zimbabwe with an opportunity to grow our SMEs. Some of them have made a name for themselves and are very likely to find themselves with both power and legitimacy when it comes to who investors are going to listen to. It is this point that provides such key players with an opportunity to form Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs).

 
SPACs have been listed in countries that have more advanced markets such as Singapore .

 
Whilst these entities face critique and suspicion in other advanced markets, we still need to analyse how they are suitable for our own environment - especially around the small to medium sized enterprises that have not yet developed their governance, digitalisation and investor information provision to an advanced level. Our local experienced managers and strategists who have worked with some of these growing companies will be able to identify and select companies that are on a growth trajectory as they start to be contracted as suppliers or support services to more established companies in an economic environment with growing demand from a population with increasing income and government policy targeting upper middle income in a period of under 10 years. SPACs could list on the VFEX with seasoned managers and business people having better understanding of other businesses they have come across as suppliers, competitors, nascent players, buyers or substitutes in markets they are specialists. The SMEs players will have adequate support to meet the discipline requirements of the covenants that might come with the much needed capital injections.

 
The formation of these acquisition companies will therefore provide the governance and company development oversight that is required by investors to mitigate against maturity risk on their investments. We do have enough of this experienced human resource which with resources can then target promising SMEs to inject both capital and mentorship support in the early stages of development of these companies. Were it their choice and financial capacity, these experienced managers would be engaging in venture capital or private equity investments. Where they are not, this is where their capability should be deployed and start to attract investment whilst providing the guarantee of  adequate governance where investors might have been worried. Governance responsibility will initially be weighted more on seasoned SPAC managers before transfer to then developed managers at exit or equity buyback.

For our SMEs, Zimbabwe requires a mix of building product and service brand attractions and adding a  level of trust by bringing management brands. If one asks who has adequate investment information in Zimbabwe that can be used for due diligence on investment opportunities, experienced managers and advisors come up together with market analysts. All of them with their different talents, history and networks make management brands that if delegated to acquire or invest in SMEs make SPACs attractive on a bourse such as the VFEX. We need to build names like other countries have for their fund managers and executives. 

Policymakers in the country need to continue debating and travelling the learning curve such that they can make country-benefitting policy conclusions on such an opportunity. They have to ensure adequate legal frameworks are there to protect all stakeholders. Parliament as well as financial intelligence units will need to continue analysing such opportunities in order to timely introduce innovations that elevate SMEs, communities, families, and the country at large through VFEX as an unmissable opportunity for investors.

The VFEX has to uplift its market capitalisation. SPACs and not just listed single companies is argued to be a viable option. There are not many Padenga's or Seed Co's at the moment. SPACs bring more investment traffic as they have the ability to combine a capital raising opportunity for  disaggregated small entities which otherwise miss out on investment due to a lack of structural engineering of securities on the exchanges.   

There are risks. 

Exchanges in small markets can become centres of craft and graft that does not benefit host countries and the wider stakeholders. SPACs could anchor a bourse as a credible investment centre rather than a hot bed of speculation and questionable company information. Legislature and Executive have to execute framework building for facilitation of  investment as the dominant activity and the greater good for the country coming out from an exchange as VFEX. All stakeholders must work hard and harder for VFEX's opportunities to be fully utilised. 

Zimbabwe and the issues with Crypto currency adoption

Blockchain and crypto currencies need user cases in Zimbabwe that will satisfy all stakeholders by way of benefit and by way of risk mitigation capability - our business people, our different people in different geographical locations, our different people of different financial literacy level, our people of different digital literacy levels, our public administrators of the common purse, our politicians, international trade partners and signatory to BIPPAs, multilaterals etc. Their story and crypto’s story is yet to be written in the same language and indeed written in full.

 

There is a place for all things digital and that place is present and more in the future. Working with a common vision is what brings the future closer to today.

 

There still is a lot to be understood and the risks from crypto coin volatility make any central banker crazy to have it in their monetary system. It is those fire scenarios that crypto advocates and the risk averse policy makers need to converge on.

 

There is a lot of risk individual traders elect to carry in trading at this present time. This risk however accumulates and aggregates as a national compound risk. When it grows and shocks, this is upon the public administrator! Individualism, behavioural economies and social trends then meet politics! The latter expected to be the host giving full board as if it is always furnished and stocked up for this.

 

See these conditions below:

In the West, the proportion of people who can hold a loss position in coins beyond their next income or more is greater than Zimbabwe. They will not need that money in the next 30days and can wait for the next rally because bread and butter is already covered, and at a national level, forex requirements for imports are adequately covered with a lot of national forex reserves and significantly greater export orders for months to come! That is not the story for MaDzimbahwe!

 

Scenario time!

Now imagine there are just 80,000 of us in Zimbabwe who get into the crypto currency market with 45% likely needing to make withdrawals or sells before the next income. Let us say they have made trades of US$75 on average in various crypto coins. That translates to US$2.7m total being likely needed by 36,000 households within the month of the US$6m invested/traded/speculated.

 

Now remember these conditions:

Poorer families are usually less diversified to manage their risks, 

&

Speculative investments by poorer families at many times have weaker Due Diligence or require less due diligence if they are risk averse. This trend is likely changing with the emergence of Robinhood and Reddit traders. Some of the DD is widely available but some goes without being read or understood!

 

So remember the US$2.7m = 45% likely needing trades to be urgently closed back to fiat out of a total of US$6m (80k Zimbabweans putting up US$75 each). Also consider this number against forex outflow volumes for total national trade in the period, consider internal market’s rate of return (as a potential opportunity cost) and also the inflation rate. 

Now the crypto market has its ups and downs. Imagine a rail line needing to pass through every high point it can find in Chimanimani - Manicaland. Beautiful place, but this isn't! It will really be kwire dzike kwiiiiire dzike dziiiiike nyuuureee kwiiiire dzike. You get the gist- that is the value trajectory on crypto market as a whole at present. 

Source: CoinMarketCap.com

Worse for the earlier mentioned condition where trades are not well diversified - the Bitcoin chete chete portfolios, Etherium cc, Solano cc, etc. for the likely short term speculative trade in poorer households. Remember there are trading fees that for an average Zimbabwean would be high as well.

Stay with me, please as a home situation needs grafting into the scenario. 

One of Zimbabwe’s key earning season is from around April to about August as tobacco and other agricultural produce is harvested and sold. Factoring in payment timelines, from May to September is the time this money is in people’s hands/accounts/wallets (and possibly think digital wallets) to manage, invest or spend. This is very key in how we as a nation; how we as the Zimbabwe of Agro-base and mining-base will be doing economically. 

Now, that that farmers and miners with money reality is here, see what the crypto market can be like in the same period. The crypto market in the same period this year fell by 49% from its USD1.842 trillion highest point on 12 May 2021 to its lowest point in May around the 23rd - a market cap of USD0.937T. 

Source: CoinMarketCap.com

For those needing their money at the end of the month including some of the example farmers and miners that would have thought of diversifying or multiplying at the start of May, that is a worst case scenario risk of that USD2.7m that went into buy positions coming back as USD1.37m. US$1.33 million has been lost to a sell-off! 

That is farmers and miners sweat turned to grain, leaf and precious metal, cum money to the tune of USD2.7m! After a few clicks to buy and a few clicks to sell, because you now need to buy bread, uniforms plus inputs maybe for a winter crop; it is now US$1.33 million less! Somebody say it isn’t! Where did it all go? 

Wealth transfer out of a nation if you bought the high from other countries and selling the dip to the same countries who are not Zimbabwe. And that was in 11 days. Do our internal markets lose that much?

 

Now if we say that required welfare higher-impact US$2.7m falls by the same percentage into required redemption period; US$1.33m (ZWL113 - 186m) would have been lost in total for 36,000 (45% of scenario investors) Zimbabwean individuals or households - Z$3,100 to Z$5,200 per individual! Now what does that translate to if that repeats itself quarterly in a year or more? 

Source: CoinMarketCap.com

The Crypto market's capitalisation dipped to USD0.886 trillion by end of June. Now it has recovered to USD1.491T as of 01-09-2021; this is just over 80% of the value at entry - 20% loss if you did not get it. Can we afford that as a nation? The contract farmer has payments to make, the bank needs its money, the nation is expectant on a level of self-funding and sustainability for the next crop seasons and the next mining expedition. The fiscus now needs to find a way for the President to now fund the next inputs scheme. The opposition is stating this is a vote buying exercise, parliamentarians are debating the efficacy of state sponsored and controlled programmes, the schools are seeing fee defaults and children’s education being threatened etc. 

We are back to the different stakeholders; see what responsibility they place on each other post such a financial system hurricane. Someone hanzi obva ati; "IMF do not give Zimbabwe any SDRs" on top of that! Chiri mupoto ndodya naniko? Chimbambaira....

Also imagine the scenario where transactions are quoted in the coins at big industrial player or national imports level.

Example being 1k oil barrels/BTC (Bitcoin). At BTC = US$35,000 that is looking for US$35 million for a million barrels of oil for our nice cars, ambulances, tractors, mining machinery, generators etc. But if the contract payment is due after a BTC rally now at US$52,000 you now need US$17m more! Chinzwa munhu; “Guys chihurumende ichi chakwidza mutengo wemafuta futi!” We can speak of using the Futures markets for the crypto but they bring downside risks as well and very complex to manage from a Zimbabwe situated in a place as big as this world. UAE, Qatar, Russia, Iran, Israel, USA, OPEC, UN, Paris Accord, climate change initiatives, green energy, Elon Musk tweets and all the spanners into the works towards Zimbabwe's desired oil price point by a certain date.  

Well, that is the doomsday scenario preacher robe won enough and now it stinks of fear sweat! 

There definitely is a case and use cases already showing potential benefits. These cases are suitable for Zimbabwe, feasible and should be acceptable to Zimbabwean users. NFTs have had use (but still with associated coin volatility risk) - this is not financial advice or any advice or policy challenge/promotion, but a mere observation! 

Crypto coins still need a design that manages their value. Do they need to replace the ZWL? I perceive there could be room for both, especially where the fiat currency remains associated with high inflation downsides. A crypto coin by the Central Bank becomes a tool to allow citizens access to a store of value and value more internalised. Minerals managed-stock linked coins? Valuable, rare, not easily imitable and organised characteristics!

Are we able to replace mining bonds with mineral coins? Are we able to internationalise this and get investment linked to stock and future yields in the sector? The US$12B mining strategy integrating citizen participation and widened citizen equity to national development and positive international market trends?

I am not an expert, but a citizen wondering. What if we…what will be?

If we…that could bite us - if we…that might help us. Only the type of thinking here. 

Takamirira mhinduro dzevamwe.

Zimbabwe's US dollar addicts, poor prescriptions adherence, and refusing rehab

Zimbabwe's monetary system is a complex system and the answers might be in continued restructuring. Pane basa rekuita.

Inflation remains high at +50%. Within this context is a great and undeniable achievement looking back at our immediate history and previous form with managing inflation in the first decade of the 21st century. Some however presently look at these inflation figures as not supported by bank interest rates for ZWL accounts. This still means a significant population would normally resort to USD as store of value despite the fall in inflation. Low bank interest rates are thought to be creating an internal forex demand factor in addition to forex outflow levels. Whilst inflation cannot be arrested today, what we do today needs to be about bringing that rate to a universally sustainable level in Zimbabwe. Otherwise it will always be a case of little fires everywhere.  

 

There remains a weakness in how forex usage is accounted for post transaction completion after a winning bid at auction. We are not clear on the weighting of internal (within Zimbabwe) transactions like instances of reselling outside the auction system against settling import bills. One asks whether we have tight enough periodic measures of internal forex withdrawals against import bill settlements? If it was let us say a 2-5 day cycle, we would have a clearer indication of how much USD does the rounds with the ZWL before going beyond our borders or staying put in someone’s mattress or returning to auction in USD or ZWL form. Help me out as per below.

Is it possible to go and seek US$500,000 and obtain it by parting with ZWL42,5m - then sell the same US$0.5m at ZWL62,5m - at the next two auction rounds come with more ZWL gunpowder to outbid competition by the necessary margin and obtain via the ZWL62.5m a sum of US$710,000 even if you are an outlier bidder at 1USD : 88ZWL instead of 85ZWL?  This is US$210,000 above the initial US$500,000! You could then import what you need for your business and also something you have always wanted in your garage? It would be the last bit where ZWL value goes as this is not Capex. That value starts to deteriorate with not much value generated. A liability that includes need for costly imported car parts for servicing, more fuel and many other bling bling things. Someone help out on whether there is no such possibility - is this a possibility with our Auction system? Is doing this twice or multiple times possible?

 

Lack of insight into the profits and profit margins of auction beneficiaries. 

Accounting for profit levels and adequately taxing them or incentivising their reinvestment gives better views on: 

i. the sustainability of our pricing compared to customer market earnings; 

ii. how much monopolies are keeping import prices at the top end; 

iii. how barriers to entry and killing of competition from SMEs is being perpetuated - SMEs would otherwise create progressive import cost advantage innovation all round through competition - lowering USD demand amongst players whilst also putting downward pressure on inflation in our pricing model - talk of the agglomeration effect that is also very necessary for our recovery and building upon Vision2030 and inherently the National Development Strategy - I; 

iv. We might also discover that profits from these monopolies have an unhealthy proportion that is not Capex - our big cars, Italian tiles, Turkish rugs etc. yet as a nation not yet funding at the adequate level an optimum import substitution industry. Trade-offs have to be confronted and dealt with! Part of realism! 

I must here acknowledge that those that have made their money will want to enjoy it. We must also be clear that five Pagani Zonda importations into New York is very different in impact to the US economy compared to the same going into Mogadishu, Kampala, Kinshasa and Harare individually. These things do happen but there is a fair price to pay in our social contract with the nation that hosts our businesses. 

The point being, in the business cycle might be a significant forex cost factor from expensive luxury imports that is too significant for the stage of our development and the size of our economy. Such spending takes away a lot from capacity building for forex inflow vs outflow positive balances. Increased internal demand for ZWL transacting follows as compared to all the many USD transactions of various urgency and necessity levels in the nation. If anyone has studied silver and how it moves in the market compared to gold; silver’s many uses makes it hard to predict its value movement as besides store of value usage it has significant volumes in industrial uses, jewellery, coins etc. which gold has less of, especially silver's significant industrial demand with no substitutes. We have failed to make the USD be like gold through fewer uses limited to imports/reserve currency. We treat it like silver with many demands including individual current account holding and continued basic internal transactions. The silver market has had attempts, though failed, of adverse monopoly and concomitantly price fixing. Globally, probably market size makes securities impossible to tame, but in a smaller market as ours, monopoly and price fixing is possible if given gaping opportunity. 

We have to factor in where State institutions are in around Forex auctions (passively or deliberately); are they bidders at the auction by reason of low yield on collecting forex denominated dues within export and import receipts? We are paying for vaccines, we are bringing in equipment at tax free rates, we have leakages in high forex earning commodities, yet some of the primary earners only see their payments in the highly pressured ZWL - tobacco farmers etc. Is there a transitory and delayed benefit in the impact of the auction system that we need to tense up for temporarily? Will the above pay dividends soon including for the growers of Virginia leaves and mattock carrying miners? When can they save up and grow up to buy curing equipment for themselves? There is a lot of complexity and what appears at times as parallel monetary systems needing a quantum leap to operate from one and develop from the other.

A wondering Zimbabwean asks 5 questions: 

1. Are there solutions in reviewing the loan rates of FCAs and of ZWL accounts against inflation? 

2. Will that make money stay in the banks? Will that give structure and efficiency to the forex system such that players know forex utilisation needs stringent investment appraisal that meet requisite payback levels? 

3. Does the Zimbabwean person need to have more access to stores of value in a more efficient manner? Is Fintech sleeping on an opportunity? 

4. Is there opportunity for an optional SADC central banks' denominated digital currency to share risk? 

5. If too broad, a gold market pegged Zimbabwean digital currency of a finite circulation volume- as we mine (gold not crypto) and store a certain amount of bullion, have the value correlate with our Bullion and against the gold price? Is for Zimbabwe then a well managed gold standard currency worth consideration, with seeing what portion of bullion could be apportioned to the currency whilst the rest can be exported? Selling and mining to manage currency? 

Sometimes listening to motherland's Economists, business people and economic observers, thinkers and opinionistas, one sees us Africans following text for text economic equations for the West and trying transposition without alteration onto the African circumstances. We are in very different conditions of leverage in the global sphere bafethu! 

I am sorry, it will not work! 

A tall and longer reach jabbing boxer does not follow the short boxer's aggressive and close combat tactics bafethu! 

We are different by balance of trade, value chain integration and participaton, technological advancement, economic activities and associated types of rents we can collect from our activities' comparative and competitive advantages. That is before we even talk of social trends we also look to copy........... and just paste! We need to search for what works best for us in our monetary circumstances and more.  

Asante sana.

 

Of ZACC and an opposing internal sanctions regime against facts.

I have seen enough of many tools lying idle. I have heard enough of them making chiming noises deliberately away from their optimal work benches. Most must reasonably be tired of this real-work avoidance when the tools are sharp (by their own claims), and the field is not complex (also by the tools’ own claims). How difficult can it be to be at the cutting edge of truth-finding if one has a claim to excellence?  How deeply hidden is this truth we say we are denied daily? What forces compel one to run away here and from such a noble effort? Hope it is not a matter deeper than the tools’ reach.

I hear  court judgements are open to expert critical reviews (we see many such contributions but elsewhere) and integration of some doctrine of Stare Decisis. What I also hear in our cases in Zimbabwe are soundbites on high decibels connotating corruption as being dealt by a claimed to be very flawed judicial system. Most are not hearing the outcomes of expert case reviews on where and how criminals can be said to be getting away with crimes. No loopholes, no technicality aspects that have been identified as facilitating the freedom of alleged criminals. No debates reaching the Legislature with solutions, or white papers that attempt to close any claimed or identified loopholes. Little if not nothing! Probably this is settled by me religiously reading blogs on Saturdays? Do we really have big issues bedevilling this nation that is full of educated experts with friends in high places who give them keys to lock the country away from progress' pantries? There are no cases lodged even for the record at the courts in opposition to non-delivery of justice in ZACC cases, and no real fear of setting dangerous precedents in current cases. This is a worthwhile objective for completion where justice is sought, or where there are loud claims of its non-existence. Without this where we say there is no justice, those who claim they will be better contributors to the judicial pillar seem to be aiming for a chance to arbitrarily pronounce things differently, or to just continue with what they claim to be poor application of the law. Yet some actors are officers of the courts defending those whom ZACC is pursuing. Think about it.

When urban councils start having their office bearers pursued, let us see how many ruling party MPs will take time to be their counsel. We seem to have two options of either agreeing ZACC is pursuing corruption as best as it can, or that corruption is not as big a problem as some claim. Why? Where it is alleged; some even expertly stand for the defendants. Can they be on two sides of the argument especially if they on one represent a people’s hope against corruption and on the other hand, they represent those accused of violating the people’s hopes? Maybe they will claim they know who corruption should pursue besides their clients who concomitantly are part of the political force they oppose. If they will say so, where are the cases they are taking to the courts when they wear their political hats? 

No one exposes, preferably in depth, how poor the judiciary and the prosecutors are besides the loudness of hashtags that are starting to be a symptom of the unhinged Age of Great Denialism in some fact-hating and evidence deficient centres of influence. These centres are quick to claim no rule of law yet frequently seeking recourse and refuge within the law with pleasure. Quick to claim a worsening situation when nowhere in history we have seen as many frequent high-profile investigations of office bearers and those who have vacated. If some know the law so much, yet they too are participants in its crafting and application, and also claim to be excellent future custodians of government, it should always make us go back to the question; how do they not show beyond doubt where and how the law is being ineffective? One cannot be the solution to what they do not show deep understanding on, and as a corollary, one who has deep insight on an issue affecting many should already be showing evidence-based credible solution propositions.

ZACC is working on cases and should be excused from certain quarters' anecdotal narratives that people think are inconsequential by reason of having working fingers and social media accounts. Before demeaning its level of functionality or effectiveness to citizens, we need those that claim its failure to be clear on the where and how. 

I feel some Zimbabweans are being sanctioned internally on facts around institutional performance. Totally held hostage to the superficiality of anecdotes yet prohibited from developing towards seeking the sharpness of valid studies of our circumstances.  

A culture has been imbedded in our conduct to take high volume soundbites of unevidenced crisis to the world ahead of thorough analysis and mitigation proposals. Instant gratification on social media is for the lazy followers of mere voices careless on validity of content!

We need representatives to be clear on their preference. There is pleasure and short myopic mileage being sought through the “Dear World, here is our worse news!” movements. There is little preference to influence and be influenced by messages like “because of X, Y and Z, this is poor by our Zimbabwean standards and what we are aiming for in this country is to improve it through 1, 2 and 3. We therefore will be doing a, b and c now!”. 

It is the preference of the mere catastrophising that compels me to view some amongst Zimbabwean politicians as the lazy high priests in the claimed to be synagogues of excellence. 

Against their high-volume soundbites and hashtags of crises, I have taken a position 'to be very wary of the yeast of these Pharisees’. Mindsets are being fermented and aroused to negate and not acknowledge any progress. 'Round everything down to zero' is the instruction! We then are not even in a position to further sharpen the working tools. At an expense, there is too much degradation of our institutions’ ascendency to powerful common utility due to partisan efforts of gaining a following and refusing competitors any attribution of value. A wise nation’s people will follow the power of finding solutions through the understanding and relationships with deep facts. We do however have a problem! 

The widows and orphans of deep knowledge are being robbed of their last senses! 'Musabvume kuti kune chakanaka kana chimwe hacho'. A lot have decoupled their political currency and modus operandi from facts and resultant solutions formulation. There is now an urgent responsibility for all of us to first seek facts around our beliefs! Solutions and balance should surely then follow! 

Foreign intervention: Zimbabwe's externalisation of its political value and values

The desperation to find an internal fault has blinded and bound a proportion of Zimbabwe to paralysis yet opportunities to progress abound. In consequence, we find Zimbabweans with a degraded cohesiveness around the fundamental duty of patriotism. The hellbent nature of finding internal fault now has increasing kinetics, energised externally, but of a very weak link between internal realities and nationalism. With little as internal drivers and few as internal prescribers of conventional and internally generated political wisdom, some Zimbabweans and some political players find themselves compulsorily purchasing a foreign ‘good’ at a cost that will prove exorbitant. The delivered environment will prove to be of technical obsolescence to wished for progress.

A shame it is.

Why do we find ourselves with this unwelcome complement of antagonism to national unity and strategy? Politics is being defined and forced on the people of Zimbabwe as a zero sums game. When Zimbabweans need to process their politics, some are made to perceive binary options and sides of only destruction or progress. It is not options between progress A compared to progresses B, C or D with all being part of a net positive hierarchy.

 

The general person has allowed themselves to be robbed! They have been robbed of perspective, a hope, and a more productive reality. The unadulterated competition of ideas and efficacy of methodologies by our representatives has already suffered a foreign intervention or invasion of some sort.

 

Zimbabweans are now cornered to live each day with the perception that those that internally disagree with them represent a preference for violations, poverty, idleness, corruption, incompetence and at worst death. Such entities have been defined as internal enemies by the self-proclaimed universal partners - awo vanoita zvekupinda pinda pasi rose!

Step away from our Zimbabwe for a minute!

The events of the last 4 years on Capitol Hill have revealed an ugliness of American politics and society. Those states have had their people’s differences accentuated to expose unnecessarily catastrophic if not cataclysmic enmities. They now march against each other’s rights, worth and weight of mattering! They now bear arms in open threat to peaceful co-existence all because compromises and national definitions that give platforms for co-existence have been redefined as zero sum games. How did it come to that? It is simple!

 

The word is spelt F O R E I G N!

 

Mereka yaka ambana nezvehu foreign and look at them now. Someone thought Barack was foreign and had no place at the apex of America’s power. Then came a Donald suspected to be a servant and subject to a foreign power. Within his tenure Donald himself allows even trade to be a matter dictated by foreign proprietor phobia, and those arguing for other trade methods and arrangements to be viewed as foreign agents. Black people are treated as foreigners to be distanced from equality and their vote takes a different meaning to white votes - “the black vote”. More like that vote that seeks the contents at the base of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs! Kumafufu. These people who look exactly like us have all been degraded from being full Americans before and beyond the waters’ edge!  

Step back to our Zimbabwe where some amongst us invite them to give weight on how much Zimbabwean lives matter! Please do step back into Zimbabwe where our struggles are for things of matter because mwana vevhu agara akakosha.

 

We are first and foremost Zimbabweans who are bonded together for common and independently perceived progress. A progress we can all agree on and fight to sustain before and beyond the visitation of foreign interests. Ndiyani anoda kuudzwa kuti chii chakanaka? Even the word is ours to show takagara tinazvo - chakanaka is not chighudhu!

 

The foreign interests should not come to define our internal relationships, to form or deform them, grade or degrade them, set up objectives or dissonant subjectivists upon them. Foreign interests should only pass by to seek the synergies available from the thrust of our positive common aspirations. And make no mistake, Zimbabweans have the capacity to see where their common aspirations arise and can be driven from, in this world and within their own world. What we have for ourselves and can do with it is not hard to see. Those who want such too at our disadvantage and distraction  are also not difficult to identify. In this, spearheads of our nation thus need to occupy the sharp piercing edges where what is sought is not mere direction but the optimal impact points of a nation’s well built momentum. 

Ipapa apa - A nation's momentum. 

We have the capacity for healthy competition to be the spearheads of Zimbabwean aspirations which are obtainable through how the country is resourced through nature, nurture and its Human Resources. We however cannot afford having some of us turned and trained to become antagonistic arrows fired from the bows of those that seek to receive our dividends as free perpetuities. Who wants to be a cash cow for other countries? For our people yes! To be a bread basket, yes! Pfumvudza’s success, yes! A stable and efficient local currency and monetary system, yes! All for Zimbabwe in partnership with non-parasitic partners, yes! 

 

Our politics can no longer have foreign objectives defining the opportunities and risks in our environment. We can identify and define them ourselves. We are qualified! Our politics and politicians need to be surrounded by the aspiration for united progress for all internal constituents. Our politicians and their followers need to respect the reality that the best political architects for Zimbabwe are Zimbabweans zeroed on Zimbabwe's optimal targets! No matter who wins amongst such architects and their designs, Zimbabweans will all still be winning and protected more than the foreign thought and the foreign need. Our politics must allow us to be sober and see that dialogue in parliament and with the executive is never detrimental even if the conversations can be very disagreeable. Any Zimbabwean can discuss and disagree with another on matters upon the country. We can define and formulate strategies for this country - tega tega hedu. Kwete kungo tagger tagger. @MupambiPfumi #HuyaUndinunure

 

Parliamentary sessions are genius if exchanges are conducted to ensure iron sharpens iron. When ideas and accountabilities are tested to the fullest capacity of our processes, it works! POLAD is genius and a great first platform to express all that needs expressing. All these are clear avenues to pursue for functional custodians of genuine Zimbabwean aspirations. Gakava ikoko!

 

Perpetual unity with the aspirations of the poorest and most disadvantaged Zimbabweans will for the awoken Zimbabwean always top seeking alliance with the interests of messengers of foreign wants. When we separate as Zimbabweans on what is common, and furthermore seek aid of the alien, we do not only externalise our accessible station of shared political values; but also our very own value to no gain.  

A citizen's response to what the Bishops said...

 To every point that Zimbabwe's Catholic Bishops made in their open letter is every citizen's right to have an opinion that will be judged between appropriate and in some cases sinful! Truth is above us all and when that comes we will all be free indeed! But here I share how and what I perceive in my own effort of serving the country I love. This is in the spirit of a true love for Zimbabwe like that hoped for in all communications about and on our nation. So here is my view on their main points, and beyond that, there is also a government response that a citizen will also wish to address - though separately.

1. It is true as the bishops stated, our freedom is still to be sought further with Zimbabwe and Zimbabweans remaining with various impediments to their freedoms. I did observe August 15 was made very relevant in lands afar as they celebrated VJ Day and it has been 75years since the battles that gave them celebrated victories ushering in their current world state! The impediments to social, internal, and external political freedoms, and to economic levers of self-sustenance and prosperity determination are still around being applied from outside and from within 40years into our independence. This letter they wrote must be addressed, too, to all such identifiable drivers and forces of impediments to Zimbabwe’s freedoms and progress. I mean all antagonistic forces! No sacred cows for the Bishops. We lack other freedoms not yet achieved and these freedoms are to be sought with the liberation struggle as an undeniable and perpetual foundation. The struggle for liberation will never cease to be relevant as the gains and lessons are tangible tools for our progression. I however would also add there is no progress in believing merely in the liberation struggle that is past. Struggles present are indeed linked but the new phases of focus!

2. The struggle between ‘those who think have arrived and those not’ is a struggle between a mentality that Zimbabwe is now good as it is, against that which says it yet has developmental track to roll further and far. Proponents of the ‘having arrived mentality’ would be evidenced by not having a vision especially for the vulnerable and those of lower incomes. They would be found by not working at repairs, re-engagement, engagement, innovation, growth initiatives and infrastructural developments. They will be found by not working on increasing the equity of Zimbabweans in their own resources, land and prevailing world opportunities. They would not be be seeking investment and improving business ties for our country. They would be putting corruption first with not a single structure to fight corruption better than they have witnessed in the past. These would clearly be those who claim Zimbabwe has arrived.

The pace of progressive work, the conduct of individuals in corruption are subjects for imperative ongoing engagement that nevertheless do not pronounce that Zimbabwe has arrived or that it is now perfect. It is not, like many nations that should be seeing more of such letters, our Zimbabwe is not perfect.

Our young nation has not always taken the perfect routes and responses to challenges. The vision is to do better than the past such that no atrocity follows on the backdrop of whether it is pure hate, be it conflict, be it the lack of trust, anarchy nor be it the misrepresentation of ground facts that paints tribes and whole people as guilty or innocent in abhorrible acts.

Zimbabwe’s truths matter. They always matter. They are the matter!

This adequately follows to address the belief that the coalescence of world bodies and individuals around a hashtag explains and make factual every claim. The truth that matters in scripture as it is in our clarity of thought and discernment is not defined by dogma nor by the words of those who have made themselves high priests or Pharisees of world politics.

“Be wary of the yeast of the Pharisees”. Some of them continuously rob and disadvantage more if not most widows and orphans than our nation’s anger and means will ever be equipped to on it most evil day.

The matter of fact is the truth on the ground, which needs clear discernment separated from subjectivity, needs to be related to full facts of both occurrence and implication at law.

Where human rights offences are/were committed, that is unacceptable! Where lies are/were peddled, that is unacceptable! Where full facts or none at all are not available, their propagation as facts or as undeniably full is too, unacceptable!

Let us work in truth and full facts in discussing the challenges we face. Let innocence not be subjective or a derivative of favour, political inclinations and prejudices or bias.

“We all ought to render unto Caesar what belongs to Caesar and to God what belongs to Him”.

3. Corruption is agreeably a scourge that affects every level of society with most unwelcome examples seen in positions of greater public responsibility and accountability. This is across the political divide and also across social standing, religious groupings or class.

There is a corruption-culture that needs a strong strategy to arrest it. This culture is fast growing globally even into the sector of truth. With lessening truth, we must ask whomsoever speaks or aligns to falsehoods, what freedoms do they seek? Only the truth sets us free! #NoFakeNewsOnZimbabwe #NoLiesOnZimbabwe

Corruption is not driven by a single personality if the truth be told and accepted. No one is Mr or Mrs Corruption besides the devil itself that influences people. But as people we have our wisdom to build structures and institutional efficiencies in both preventing and recovering from corruption. This is the job at hand whose timelines need all players to review as to add impetus to current progress, or block deterioration.

Corruption busting is a very technical and tactical  task that needs all of us to descend from high horses of one directional finger pointing.

If we all humble ourselves to be on the ground, we will all clearly identify what serves Zimbabwe and be servants and some being servant leaders. 

It will be most welcome for the nation to improve its discussion cum discovery on what and where Zimbabwe’s worth really is and how it can be preserved from being lost from its children to go back or away into the hands of those who wish to manipulate it for their own ends. We have been enslaved, colonised, and should not allow our nation to be robbed or robbed again, and not benefit our poorest further and just enrich hunting rich people.

4. The truth of this political world matters for strategy. Today’s heroism is undeniably the efforts of driving the nation forward. That journey has many as a force pushing behind. The Zimbabwean journey is also not without impediments against our force forward. Those impeding forces need to be revealed to all otherwise we will celebrate short term heroes who will only be setting up the country to re-fight for certain gains. The truth matters, there are many who want what we have, who do not want us to have it either in full or in a fair way. There are others determined that we do not succeed if we are to have a big share of what is ours. These include rights, resources and freedoms. It is a claim to be investigated by all who really care for Zimbabwe for it might be a fact and a truth. Or is it not?

We must be clear on heroism! Naivety to global political machinations, and facilitation of foreign gains over internal gains are not acceptable even in any chosen nation of those deemed friends of Zimbabwe on the pertinent situation. Just to open our eyes to the meaning of current trade wars. Nations protecting themselves or offending other nations for value extrication. 

It would add value to fully get an assessment of foreign policy dynamics on Zimbabwe and whether letters of concern are also overdue or should remain undelivered on sanctions unfairly imposed on Zimbabwe especially when considering both historical and current global practices including by those who impose these. A thought especially as we care for the vulnerable.

I will pause and pose a question; who is worth two decades of sanctions, a nation that has had conflicts and confrontations resulting in deaths over land and demonstrations, or one that has enslaved, colonised over centuries and killed larger masses with atomic bombs? Parable of the unforgiving servant might be a good reference point where politics is given biblical connotations.

To move on, I remind how truth matters, and  add, so does character in foreign relations! Naivety to the character of foreign relations seldom has no connection to heroism! We must well read the verses and the connect them to well-read circumstances. Speaking of which, what is the thinking on capitalism of the world’s nations that are not recipients of Bishop letters since Zimbabwe now has a socialism recommendation from those globally headquartered surrounded by Rome? Good intentions, and these are welcome.

Good intentions should help the poor and vulnerable. In a country with a Vision2030, it is best to criticise the vision’s substance or claimed progress rather than claim the poor do not feature on the national agenda. Uplifting incomes to middle class is not largely an agenda for the richest in word and in deed. It is worth referencing impact or lack thereof in the programmes like agricultural input schemes and welfare safety nets as not good enough for the Bishops rather than make claims of total absence of schemes for the poor. Are sanctions a scheme that has worked for these poor anywhere in the world? The truth on Zimbabwe matters!

We need provision of expert legal reviews of cases as evidence of the erosion of judicial prudence and independence above the generalised and dogmatic claims. How many have abandoned the courts or are only attending them under duress? Zimbabwe needs to travel a journey paved by its facts and truths. They are relevant to its sustainable strategic wins. No deals with the devil! #OnlyTheTruthOnZimbabwe.

5. 

The truth matters and clarity is of the essence! Were it that the Bishops have no confidence in anyone, the good book allows one to rebuke those they think are with sin. It is here that the Bishops ought to be abundantly clear and notify that they do not recognise the government or that they do not view it as able within its constitutional mandate to deliver against the Bishops’ (and if equating also to their congregants’ expectations). It is also here that the expressions need to render to Caesar (constitutionality) how the way forward is exercisable as wished in Heaven for our piece of Earth. It is also pertinent that their judgement of sin is made solid by clear linkage and compatibility with (not claims but) full facts. These facts need to be clear on the past and present and importantly with the future as would be put in their way forward or manifesto. Claims on what the present and past look like are easy, it is the near prophecy of the efficacy of futuristic proposals  that needs a strong relationship with high probability and truth!

In conclusion active citizens must be appreciated for effort and encouragement should always be overflowing on each of us to play our roles and play them well.